Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Steel 50.2% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 56.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 52.2%
Neutral zone
Steel 50.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Larkin
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Larkin
Steel
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
2
Larkin
Steel
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Steel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
4
Larkin
Steel
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
50.6% (2,876)
+1.1%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
62.6% (179)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
37.4% (254)
+12.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
Larkin
Steel
Home
54.0% (6,238)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Larkin
Steel
P1
52.7%
51.9%
P2
53.1%
49.5%
P3
52.1%
49.6%
OT
58.4%
41.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 17:35 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 3 | 05:44 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 3 | 16:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 3 | 02:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 1 | 03:50 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Oct 8, 2018 | OT | 01:58 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 1 | 06:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |