Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Kuraly 50.1% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 55.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 78.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 61.2%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 72.6%
27.4%
72.6%
Larkin
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Larkin
Kuraly
Last 6: Larkin 0-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
4
Larkin
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Larkin
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
51.8% (444)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
45.3% (150)
+2.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kuraly
Home
52.4% (647)
54.6% (304)
Away
52.7% (643)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Larkin
Kuraly
P1
52.2%
55.2%
P2
53.1%
45.7%
P3
51.7%
49.5%
OT
61.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 16:01 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 06:30 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |