Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.3%). Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Kuraly 53.7% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 72.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 68.0%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 52.6%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Larkin
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Larkin
Kuraly
Last 5: Larkin 1-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
4
Larkin
Kuraly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
55.3% (515)
-2.7%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
55.6% (9)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
44.8% (58)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Kuraly is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kuraly
Home
54.7% (783)
57.3% (293)
Away
54.3% (816)
51.2% (289)
By Period
Larkin
Kuraly
P1
55.9%
53.8%
P2
56.1%
51.5%
P3
51.1%
57.6%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 05:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:41 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |