Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Kuraly 49.5% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 73.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Larkin
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Larkin
Kuraly
Last 7: Larkin 4-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Kuraly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
3
Larkin
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
52.3% (982)
-0.5%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
41.9% (43)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
39.2% (245)
+8.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Larkin shoots left. Kuraly is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (859).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kuraly
Home
55.6% (662)
50.3% (680)
Away
48.3% (542)
48.5% (590)
By Period
Larkin
Kuraly
P1
49.9%
49.5%
P2
52.7%
49.6%
P3
53.0%
49.0%
OT
68.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.3%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2021 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2021 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2021 | 2 | 08:25 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 18:23 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 11:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |