Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Kuraly 49.7% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 83.2%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 77.9%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 55.0%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Larkin
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Larkin
Kuraly
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Kuraly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
4
Larkin
Kuraly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Larkin
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
49.2% (901)
+4.4%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
68.2% (22)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
49.8% (219)
-1.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kuraly
Home
56.6% (700)
51.7% (603)
Away
52.1% (655)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Larkin
Kuraly
P1
55.4%
50.9%
P2
54.7%
49.5%
P3
52.7%
49.1%
OT
59.1%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 10:01 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 15:11 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 05:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 17:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 05:56 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 03:23 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 09:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |