Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Kuraly 48.4% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 86.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 62.6%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Larkin
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
Kuraly
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Kuraly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
3
Larkin
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
49.4% (445)
+6.5%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
100.0% (3)
-42.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
41.9% (117)
+4.3%
On power play, Kuraly has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Kuraly is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (354).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kuraly
Home
56.0% (654)
49.2% (248)
Away
54.8% (639)
47.3% (317)
By Period
Larkin
Kuraly
P1
54.4%
48.3%
P2
55.9%
44.7%
P3
55.2%
51.7%
Final 5 min
53.8%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 05:34 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |