Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pinto on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Pinto 50.3% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Pinto leads 30-22 in 52 meetings
Offensive zone
Pinto 53.7%
Defensive zone
Pinto 78.3%
Neutral zone
Pinto 62.2%
Result
Shane Pinto favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
Larkin
Pinto
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
30
(52 meetings)
22
30
Larkin
Pinto
Last 10: Larkin 2-8 Pinto
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
9
10
Larkin
Pinto
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pinto
4
13
Larkin
Pinto
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
7
Larkin
Pinto
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pinto
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
50.6% (2,716)
+1.1%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
54.4% (90)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
44.9% (234)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pinto shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Pinto is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,185).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pinto
Home
54.0% (6,238)
50.9% (1,501)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
49.6% (1,539)
By Period
Larkin
Pinto
P1
52.7%
48.3%
P2
53.1%
51.7%
P3
52.1%
50.9%
OT
58.4%
46.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Pinto
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | OT | 01:39 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:49 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 14:21 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 14:09 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 01:35 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:17 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:56 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 05:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:58 | Defensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 06:09 | Offensive | Shane Pinto |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 2 | 09:05 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |