Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Crosby 55.5% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 52.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 80.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 65.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Larkin
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
11
(18 meetings)
7
11
Larkin
Crosby
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
5
Larkin
Crosby
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
1
Larkin
Crosby
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
5
Larkin
Crosby
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
53.7% (984)
-2.0%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
64.7% (241)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
64.3% (14)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Crosby is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (879).
Home / Away
Larkin
Crosby
Home
52.4% (647)
56.9% (649)
Away
52.7% (643)
54.9% (590)
By Period
Larkin
Crosby
P1
52.2%
55.8%
P2
53.1%
53.2%
P3
51.7%
58.7%
OT
61.3%
54.2%
Final 5 min
55.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:21 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 19:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 16:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 06:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |