Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Crosby 52.8% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 67.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 70.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Larkin
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Larkin
Crosby
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Crosby
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Crosby
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Crosby
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
52.5% (1,443)
+1.1%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
54.7% (369)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
55.9% (34)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Crosby is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,199).
Home / Away
Larkin
Crosby
Home
56.6% (700)
53.0% (931)
Away
52.1% (655)
53.0% (915)
By Period
Larkin
Crosby
P1
55.4%
50.3%
P2
54.7%
55.4%
P3
52.7%
53.3%
OT
59.1%
47.4%
Final 5 min
57.0%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 05:08 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 13:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 07:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 17:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 03:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 1 | 02:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |