Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Crosby 57.8% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 84.5%
Defensive zone
Crosby 55.9%
Neutral zone
Crosby 68.7%
Result
Sidney Crosby favored at 70.9%
29.1%
70.9%
Larkin
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
8
(21 meetings)
13
8
Larkin
Crosby
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
5
Larkin
Crosby
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
1
Larkin
Crosby
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
2
Larkin
Crosby
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
57.8% (1,437)
-1.9%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
60.9% (381)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
50.0% (54)
-3.8%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Crosby is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,257).
Home / Away
Larkin
Crosby
Home
56.0% (654)
59.2% (985)
Away
54.8% (639)
57.2% (887)
By Period
Larkin
Crosby
P1
54.4%
57.3%
P2
55.9%
59.5%
P3
55.2%
58.5%
OT
64.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
59.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 18:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 06:22 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 12:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 03:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 02:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:05 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 18:28 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 10:44 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 16:08 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 2 | 15:42 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 1 | 16:40 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |