Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Johnson 49.7% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 24-19 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 67.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 69.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 67.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Larkin
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
19
(43 meetings)
24
19
Larkin
Johnson
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
10
4
Larkin
Johnson
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
7
Larkin
Johnson
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
6
8
Larkin
Johnson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
49.8% (5,396)
+1.9%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
54.6% (885)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
42.3% (707)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johnson
Home
54.0% (6,238)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Larkin
Johnson
P1
52.7%
50.1%
P2
53.1%
50.6%
P3
52.1%
48.4%
OT
58.4%
42.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2023 | 3 | 18:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 2 | 09:59 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 16:35 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 19:45 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 17:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 1 | 18:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 1 | 09:49 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 11:11 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2 | 01:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |