Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Johnson 48.9% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 73.8%
Defensive zone
Johnson 75.6%
Neutral zone
Johnson 73.1%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 74.1%
25.9%
74.1%
Larkin
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Larkin
Johnson
Last 7: Larkin 2-5 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
2
Larkin
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
2
Larkin
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (1,228)
49.4% (399)
+3.5%
Power Play
63.1% (214)
52.9% (34)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (145)
37.5% (40)
+17.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Larkin is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Larkin shoots left. Johnson is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johnson
Home
55.8% (805)
49.8% (229)
Away
53.2% (782)
47.5% (244)
By Period
Larkin
Johnson
P1
55.2%
45.0%
P2
53.3%
49.1%
P3
55.1%
50.3%
OT
51.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2018 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 4, 2018 | 1 | 09:49 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 19:21 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 11:11 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2 | 01:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |