Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Johnston 48.5% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 69.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 74.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 74.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Larkin
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Larkin
Johnston
Last 6: Larkin 5-1 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
47.8% (623)
+3.9%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
50.8% (63)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
51.4% (35)
-3.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johnston
Home
52.4% (647)
47.6% (351)
Away
52.7% (643)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Larkin
Johnston
P1
52.2%
49.6%
P2
53.1%
47.3%
P3
51.7%
48.0%
OT
61.3%
46.7%
Final 5 min
55.2%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |