Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Johnston 49.1% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 12-11 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.3%
Defensive zone
Johnston 66.4%
Neutral zone
Johnston 56.2%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Larkin
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
12
(23 meetings)
11
12
Larkin
Johnston
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
2
Larkin
Johnston
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
3
4
Larkin
Johnston
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
3
6
Larkin
Johnston
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
49.3% (2,189)
+2.4%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
52.6% (173)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
44.7% (237)
+5.5%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Johnston is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,967).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johnston
Home
54.0% (6,238)
49.2% (1,319)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
49.0% (1,280)
By Period
Larkin
Johnston
P1
52.7%
50.1%
P2
53.1%
48.3%
P3
52.1%
48.8%
OT
58.4%
51.6%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:26 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:46 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 10:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:53 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:00 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |