Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Johnston 50.1% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 52.8%
Defensive zone
Johnston 80.5%
Neutral zone
Johnston 64.7%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Larkin
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
Johnston
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Larkin
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Larkin
Johnston
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
50.7% (552)
+5.2%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
61.5% (13)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
43.5% (69)
+2.7%
On even strength, Larkin has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Johnston is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johnston
Home
56.0% (654)
50.3% (342)
Away
54.8% (639)
50.0% (292)
By Period
Larkin
Johnston
P1
54.4%
54.4%
P2
55.9%
47.2%
P3
55.2%
49.4%
OT
64.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:46 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 10:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:53 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:00 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |