Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Johnston 51.0% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 51.4%
Defensive zone
Johnston 65.8%
Neutral zone
Johnston 63.5%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Larkin
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Larkin
Johnston
Last 7: Larkin 2-5 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
4
Larkin
Johnston
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
52.6% (696)
+0.0%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
52.3% (88)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
42.4% (125)
+13.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Johnston is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (705).
Home / Away
Larkin
Johnston
Home
54.7% (783)
52.8% (458)
Away
54.3% (816)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Larkin
Johnston
P1
55.9%
48.9%
P2
56.1%
52.3%
P3
51.1%
51.4%
OT
66.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:26 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |