Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Strome wins 54.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 58.1% vs Kastelic 58.3% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 85.3%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 91.3%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 56.8%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Strome
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Strome
Kastelic
Last 5: Strome 4-1 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
4
0
Strome
Kastelic
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Strome
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (848)
61.2% (340)
-4.8%
Power Play
66.4% (295)
83.3% (6)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (12)
56.0% (141)
-14.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Strome is 54.6% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Strome shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Strome
Kastelic
Home
55.8% (616)
60.9% (233)
Away
62.2% (539)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Strome
Kastelic
P1
61.8%
58.6%
P2
54.6%
58.7%
P3
60.5%
63.1%
OT
50.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
57.7%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
48.0%▼
56.5%
58.8%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |