Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 52.5%). Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Strome wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 52.1% vs Hertl 52.3% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 79.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 71.1%
Neutral zone
Strome 56.1%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Strome
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Strome
Hertl
Last 10: Strome 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
3
1
Strome
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Strome
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Strome
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (684)
51.6% (1,084)
-1.0%
Power Play
58.9% (192)
61.0% (246)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
44.1% (136)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Strome is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Strome shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Strome
Hertl
Home
51.3% (448)
55.2% (696)
Away
53.4% (431)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Strome
Hertl
P1
51.4%
55.4%
P2
54.6%
54.8%
P3
50.7%
48.9%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
52.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 09:44 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 06:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 09:08 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 05:14 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 06:41 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |