Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Strome wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 53.4% vs Hertl 55.4% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 83.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 50.9%
Neutral zone
Strome 61.7%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Strome
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Strome
Hertl
Last 9: Strome 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Strome
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Strome
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Strome
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (968)
54.1% (717)
-1.5%
Power Play
56.9% (311)
61.9% (210)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
58.1% (31)
+4.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Strome is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Strome shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Strome
Hertl
Home
53.4% (653)
58.1% (492)
Away
53.9% (634)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Strome
Hertl
P1
49.3%
57.1%
P2
54.6%
54.0%
P3
56.7%
56.6%
OT
62.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.9%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
53.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 2 | 12:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 07:17 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 02:36 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:41 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |