Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.7% vs 57.8%). Strome wins 60.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 58.0% vs Hertl 57.2% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 52.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 56.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.1%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Strome
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Strome
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
1
0
Strome
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (856)
58.1% (823)
-1.9%
Power Play
66.4% (298)
56.2% (265)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (12)
62.9% (35)
-21.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Strome is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (808).
Strome shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Strome
Hertl
Home
55.7% (627)
59.7% (561)
Away
62.2% (539)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Strome
Hertl
P1
61.6%
51.6%
P2
54.5%
63.8%
P3
60.4%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
57.6%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
58.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:41 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |