Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Luostarinen wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Luostarinen 47.2% vs Tavares 57.2% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 76.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 65.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 76.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Luostarinen
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Luostarinen
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Luostarinen
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Luostarinen
2
0
Luostarinen
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Luostarinen
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (56)
58.0% (914)
-9.8%
Power Play
36.4% (11)
57.0% (235)
-20.6%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (13)
57.9% (19)
-27.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Luostarinen is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (53).
Luostarinen shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Luostarinen
Tavares
Home
40.7% (27)
57.8% (614)
Away
45.3% (53)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Luostarinen
Tavares
P1
47.8%
58.0%
P2
39.1%
56.9%
P3
42.4%
58.4%
OT
100.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
47.4%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Luostarinen
44.0%▼
47.5%
43.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 12:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:47 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |