Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +16.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Luostarinen wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Luostarinen 43.4% vs Tavares 57.7% (-16.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Luostarinen 62.2%
Defensive zone
Luostarinen 70.1%
Neutral zone
Luostarinen 75.1%
Result
Eetu Luostarinen favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Luostarinen
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Luostarinen
Tavares
Last 5: Luostarinen 1-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Luostarinen
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Luostarinen
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Luostarinen
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (365)
57.5% (914)
-16.1%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
60.5% (309)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (38)
59.1% (22)
-14.4%
On even strength, Tavares has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Luostarinen is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Luostarinen shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Home / Away
Luostarinen
Tavares
Home
41.5% (207)
61.0% (661)
Away
42.2% (211)
55.3% (584)
By Period
Luostarinen
Tavares
P1
38.2%
58.6%
P2
44.9%
57.8%
P3
42.9%
58.4%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.9%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Luostarinen
44.0%▼
47.5%
41.9%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 06:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 04:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 14:51 | Defensive | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |