Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.9% vs 43.0%). Luostarinen wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Luostarinen 44.2% vs Cates 43.2% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Luostarinen 54.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 53.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Luostarinen
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Luostarinen
Cates
Last 7: Luostarinen 3-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Luostarinen
1
0
Luostarinen
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Luostarinen
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Luostarinen
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Luostarinen
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,748)
44.1% (2,742)
+0.6%
Power Play
41.7% (60)
43.0% (242)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (205)
34.9% (373)
+3.1%
On penalty kill, Luostarinen has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Luostarinen is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,335).
Luostarinen shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Luostarinen
Cates
Home
44.7% (1,006)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
43.1% (1,007)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Luostarinen
Cates
P1
43.4%
44.5%
P2
45.3%
43.5%
P3
43.0%
41.2%
OT
37.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
44.4%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Luostarinen
44.0%▼
47.5%
43.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:58 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 08:42 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 17:30 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 02:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |