Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Luostarinen wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Luostarinen 41.1% vs Hertl 52.3% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.2%
Defensive zone
Luostarinen 60.5%
Neutral zone
Luostarinen 50.6%
Result
Eetu Luostarinen favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Luostarinen
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Luostarinen
Hertl
Last 10: Luostarinen 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Luostarinen
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Luostarinen
4
2
Luostarinen
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Luostarinen
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Luostarinen
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (708)
51.6% (1,084)
-10.5%
Power Play
50.0% (10)
61.0% (246)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
29.8% (84)
44.1% (136)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Luostarinen is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (531).
Luostarinen shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Luostarinen
Hertl
Home
38.8% (402)
55.2% (696)
Away
41.3% (400)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Luostarinen
Hertl
P1
40.7%
55.4%
P2
42.9%
54.8%
P3
36.2%
48.9%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
38.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Luostarinen
44.0%▼
47.5%
40.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 05:09 | Defensive | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 01:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 11:18 | Defensive | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 04:03 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 17:31 | Defensive | Eetu Luostarinen |