Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Luostarinen wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Luostarinen 52.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Luostarinen 75.1%
Defensive zone
Luostarinen 72.7%
Neutral zone
Luostarinen 73.1%
Result
Eetu Luostarinen favored at 73.0%
73.0%
27.0%
Luostarinen
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Luostarinen
Hertl
Last 7: Luostarinen 1-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Luostarinen
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
Luostarinen
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Luostarinen
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (153)
57.0% (718)
-3.4%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
64.9% (188)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (15)
44.2% (77)
+15.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Luostarinen is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Luostarinen shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Luostarinen
Hertl
Home
53.3% (92)
59.2% (463)
Away
54.0% (87)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Luostarinen
Hertl
P1
52.2%
56.3%
P2
49.1%
55.4%
P3
60.0%
60.5%
Final 5 min
62.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Luostarinen
44.0%▼
47.5%
53.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 06:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 02:55 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 06:13 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |