Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Lindholm shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Lindholm 54.8% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 72.1%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 83.3%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 69.0%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 77.2%
22.8%
77.2%
McDavid
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Lindholm
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Lindholm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Lindholm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Lindholm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
54.4% (722)
-6.9%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
62.2% (164)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
49.4% (83)
-2.9%
On power play, Lindholm has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. Lindholm is 57.8% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lindholm
Home
50.2% (400)
55.8% (541)
Away
44.7% (365)
54.7% (428)
By Period
McDavid
Lindholm
P1
47.5%
54.8%
P2
48.6%
55.7%
P3
46.7%
55.6%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 18:54 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |