Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lindholm wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.9% vs McTavish 50.6% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 60.2%
Defensive zone
McTavish 61.4%
Neutral zone
McTavish 63.8%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 61.9%
38.1%
61.9%
Lindholm
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Lindholm
McTavish
Last 9: Lindholm 3-6 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lindholm
McTavish
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lindholm
McTavish
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
3
Lindholm
McTavish
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (937)
51.1% (769)
+3.8%
Power Play
60.4% (265)
50.6% (178)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (172)
28.6% (14)
+20.8%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Lindholm is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,115).
Lindholm shoots right. McTavish is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Lindholm
McTavish
Home
54.4% (688)
52.3% (461)
Away
56.1% (686)
49.2% (500)
By Period
Lindholm
McTavish
P1
57.2%
51.5%
P2
54.3%
54.0%
P3
54.2%
47.1%
OT
54.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.2%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 09:19 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3 | 02:23 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:04 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:45 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |