Elias Lindholm vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 54.8% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 58.3%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 84.1%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 65.4%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Lindholm
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Lindholm
MacKinnon
Last 8: Lindholm 5-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Lindholm
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
3
0
Lindholm
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (722)
50.0% (992)
+4.4%
Power Play
62.2% (164)
64.9% (148)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (83)
34.4% (32)
+15.0%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Lindholm is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Lindholm shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Lindholm
MacKinnon
Home
55.8% (541)
53.3% (591)
Away
54.7% (428)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Lindholm
MacKinnon
P1
54.8%
49.9%
P2
55.7%
53.2%
P3
55.6%
50.8%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.8%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:56 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:15 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:18 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |