Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Rodrigues shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Rodrigues 46.0% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 71.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 71.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Nelson
Rodrigues
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
8
(21 meetings)
13
8
Nelson
Rodrigues
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Rodrigues
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Rodrigues
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Rodrigues
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
4
Nelson
Rodrigues
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Rodrigues
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
46.2% (2,883)
+1.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
45.0% (298)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
42.9% (219)
+0.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rodrigues shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Home / Away
Nelson
Rodrigues
Home
50.0% (5,845)
47.1% (1,820)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
44.4% (1,580)
By Period
Nelson
Rodrigues
P1
48.7%
46.9%
P2
48.5%
46.1%
P3
47.7%
44.6%
OT
45.6%
48.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2022 | OT | 03:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 05:15 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 29, 2021 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 3 | 17:33 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 1 | 13:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 19:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 14:41 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 3 | 15:03 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 3 | 05:54 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 3 | 01:27 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |