Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 19 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Staal 55.3% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 24-18 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 71.9%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 76.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 79.0%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Rodrigues
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
24
(42 meetings)
18
24
Rodrigues
Staal
Last 10: Rodrigues 2-8 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
7
12
Rodrigues
Staal
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
9
Rodrigues
Staal
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
6
3
Rodrigues
Staal
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
55.9% (14,620)
-9.7%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
62.7% (1,745)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
48.0% (2,896)
-5.1%
On power play, Staal has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Rodrigues shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Staal
Home
47.1% (1,820)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
Rodrigues
Staal
P1
46.9%
55.2%
P2
46.1%
55.9%
P3
44.6%
54.9%
OT
48.5%
56.2%
Final 5 min
48.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 13:51 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 05:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:52 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | OT | 04:36 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | OT | 01:55 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 08:50 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 16:54 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 07:28 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 02:41 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 13:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 13:20 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |