Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Eller 50.5% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 19-11 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 84.0%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 78.3%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 79.5%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 81.1%
81.1%
18.9%
Rodrigues
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
19
(30 meetings)
11
19
Rodrigues
Eller
Last 10: Rodrigues 4-6 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
8
6
Rodrigues
Eller
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
12
Rodrigues
Eller
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
1
Rodrigues
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
51.1% (10,296)
-4.9%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
52.8% (621)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
46.7% (1,751)
-3.8%
On power play, Eller has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Rodrigues shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,573).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Eller
Home
47.1% (1,820)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Rodrigues
Eller
P1
46.9%
51.2%
P2
46.1%
50.1%
P3
44.6%
50.2%
OT
48.5%
56.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:55 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:32 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:56 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:01 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 13:22 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 01:27 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 12:37 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 3 | 05:40 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 3 | 05:33 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 2 | 07:07 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 1 | 19:30 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |