Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.3% vs Dowd 49.9% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 79.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 62.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Rodrigues
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Rodrigues
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
0
Rodrigues
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (250)
52.2% (835)
-6.6%
Power Play
40.0% (30)
60.0% (10)
-20.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
44.0% (350)
+6.0%
On power play, Dowd has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Rodrigues is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (59).
Rodrigues shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Dowd
Home
46.5% (142)
51.5% (619)
Away
43.6% (140)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Rodrigues
Dowd
P1
42.9%
51.7%
P2
50.0%
51.6%
P3
42.4%
47.0%
OT
50.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
45.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:40 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:29 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:12 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |