Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.3% vs Dowd 49.1% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 87.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 67.7%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 61.6%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Rodrigues
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Rodrigues
Dowd
Last 10: Rodrigues 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
0
Rodrigues
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
4
Rodrigues
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Rodrigues
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (637)
51.7% (644)
-3.8%
Power Play
47.9% (71)
0.0% (2)
+47.9%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (67)
41.6% (221)
-4.3%
On power play, Rodrigues has a +47.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Rodrigues shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Dowd
Home
48.3% (429)
48.6% (451)
Away
45.4% (346)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Rodrigues
Dowd
P1
48.3%
49.1%
P2
46.9%
47.3%
P3
45.6%
51.4%
OT
44.4%
30.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 07:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 11:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:44 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:25 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 13:20 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:48 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:38 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |