Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.3% vs Zacha 51.9% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 54.9%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 52.7%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 56.1%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Rodrigues
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Rodrigues
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Rodrigues
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (525)
53.7% (497)
-6.8%
Power Play
48.1% (54)
54.8% (84)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (57)
37.5% (64)
-4.2%
On even strength, Zacha has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Rodrigues shoots right. Zacha is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Zacha
Home
46.3% (354)
51.0% (335)
Away
45.0% (282)
53.5% (310)
By Period
Rodrigues
Zacha
P1
47.7%
60.0%
P2
46.0%
48.1%
P3
43.2%
48.8%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.8%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:58 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |