Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.9% vs Hertl 52.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 77.2%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 60.2%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 63.2%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 68.7%
68.7%
31.3%
Rodrigues
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Rodrigues
Hertl
Last 8: Rodrigues 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Rodrigues
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (318)
51.6% (1,084)
-4.4%
Power Play
52.4% (42)
61.0% (246)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
44.1% (136)
-1.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Rodrigues shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Hertl
Home
49.8% (215)
55.2% (696)
Away
44.4% (171)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Rodrigues
Hertl
P1
44.2%
55.4%
P2
53.5%
54.8%
P3
44.6%
48.9%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.6%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 11:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 1 | 18:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:42 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |