Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Hertl 54.2% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 16-14 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 66.4%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 61.3%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 61.2%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 63.1%
63.1%
36.9%
Rodrigues
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
16
(30 meetings)
14
16
Rodrigues
Hertl
Last 10: Rodrigues 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
8
Rodrigues
Hertl
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
8
6
Rodrigues
Hertl
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
2
Rodrigues
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
53.8% (8,268)
-7.6%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
59.3% (1,975)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
46.3% (806)
-3.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Rodrigues shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Hertl
Home
47.1% (1,820)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Rodrigues
Hertl
P1
46.9%
53.6%
P2
46.1%
54.1%
P3
44.6%
55.3%
OT
48.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
48.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 14:29 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 07:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 05:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:13 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:43 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 15:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 03:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 03:38 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 03:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 18:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |