Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Malkin wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Carrick 52.1% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 88.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 85.7%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.5%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Malkin
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Malkin
Carrick
Last 10: Malkin 3-7 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
7
1
Malkin
Carrick
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Malkin
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
5
Malkin
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
52.1% (2,513)
-6.5%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
61.3% (75)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
50.7% (430)
-18.5%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Malkin shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Malkin
Carrick
Home
47.6% (5,395)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Malkin
Carrick
P1
45.9%
51.8%
P2
46.2%
52.2%
P3
45.2%
52.4%
Final 5 min
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:03 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:29 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:23 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 08:55 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 03:19 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:23 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 19:44 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 19:29 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 16:12 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 16:57 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:31 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 08:18 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 08:15 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 08:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |