Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Malkin wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 57.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 53.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 50.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Malkin
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Malkin
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Malkin
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (219)
56.1% (342)
-10.4%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
53.3% (92)
-18.7%
On power play, Stamkos has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Malkin is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Malkin shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Malkin
Stamkos
Home
50.4% (113)
53.4% (208)
Away
39.4% (132)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Malkin
Stamkos
P1
47.7%
55.6%
P2
44.9%
52.8%
P3
40.0%
59.1%
OT
100.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
35.3%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |