Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings). Malkin wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Johnson 49.7% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Johnson leads 34-16 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 87.4%
Defensive zone
Malkin 70.2%
Neutral zone
Malkin 68.6%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 72.2%
72.2%
27.8%
Malkin
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
34
(50 meetings)
16
34
Malkin
Johnson
Last 10: Malkin 6-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
3
5
Malkin
Johnson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
4
13
Malkin
Johnson
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
9
16
Malkin
Johnson
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
49.8% (5,396)
-4.2%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
54.6% (885)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
42.3% (707)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Malkin shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Malkin
Johnson
Home
47.6% (5,395)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Malkin
Johnson
P1
45.9%
50.1%
P2
46.2%
50.6%
P3
45.2%
48.4%
OT
49.0%
42.5%
Final 5 min
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:25 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 11, 2020 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 6, 2020 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 30, 2019 | 2 | 19:33 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 04:10 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 01:11 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 09:32 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 05:58 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 01:36 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 09:49 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 05:34 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 2 | 01:35 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 3, 2017 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 3, 2017 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 8, 2017 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |