Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuznetsov wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuznetsov 47.7% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuznetsov 60.4%
Defensive zone
Kuznetsov 58.8%
Neutral zone
Kuznetsov 57.6%
Result
Evgeny Kuznetsov favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Last 5: Kuznetsov 2-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
2
0
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (927)
52.3% (560)
-4.6%
Power Play
53.5% (71)
57.5% (113)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
39.4% (71)
62.5% (16)
-23.1%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Kuznetsov is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (340).
Kuznetsov shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Home
45.9% (534)
54.2% (360)
Away
49.2% (535)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
P1
44.8%
54.5%
P2
52.1%
56.7%
P3
44.5%
50.8%
OT
75.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
45.2%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
47.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2 | 11:49 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |