Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuznetsov on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuznetsov wins 40.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuznetsov 45.6% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 61.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 72.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 72.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
2
1
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (613)
51.5% (594)
-7.1%
Power Play
58.8% (68)
51.7% (87)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (66)
28.6% (14)
+7.8%
On penalty kill, Kuznetsov has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Kuznetsov is 40.2% vs right-shot opponents (256).
Kuznetsov shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
Home
48.6% (370)
53.1% (339)
Away
41.4% (377)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Kuznetsov
Pavelski
P1
44.3%
53.8%
P2
49.6%
47.8%
P3
41.4%
50.2%
OT
42.9%
71.4%
Final 5 min
41.1%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
45.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 14:29 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |