Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Chytil wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Chytil 42.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 17-15 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Chytil 78.9%
Defensive zone
Chytil 60.3%
Neutral zone
Chytil 65.9%
Result
Filip Chytil favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Chytil
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
17
(32 meetings)
15
17
Chytil
Dowd
Last 10: Chytil 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Chytil
8
2
Chytil
Dowd
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
9
Chytil
Dowd
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Chytil
Dowd
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Chytil
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (2,535)
52.4% (6,009)
-10.3%
Power Play
42.2% (206)
56.1% (164)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (24)
44.1% (1,635)
-6.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Chytil is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (915).
Chytil shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Chytil
Dowd
Home
42.8% (1,337)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
41.4% (1,428)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Chytil
Dowd
P1
40.8%
51.7%
P2
43.8%
50.4%
P3
41.4%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
43.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Chytil
50.0%▲
47.0%
42.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 10:15 | Offensive | Filip Chytil |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 04:30 | Neutral | Filip Chytil |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 04:09 | Neutral | Filip Chytil |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 3 | 02:27 | Offensive | Filip Chytil |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 19:23 | Neutral | Filip Chytil |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 05:21 | Offensive | Filip Chytil |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Filip Chytil |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 04:58 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 03:01 | Offensive | Filip Chytil |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 15:44 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 19:25 | Neutral | Filip Chytil |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |