Scouting Report
Frank Nazar holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nazar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Carlsson 41.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 75.4%
Defensive zone
Nazar 77.1%
Neutral zone
Nazar 76.7%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 75.9%
75.9%
24.1%
Nazar
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Nazar
Carlsson
Last 6: Nazar 5-1 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
1
Nazar
Carlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
1
0
Nazar
Carlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
41.0% (1,844)
+5.1%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
42.9% (154)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
35.0% (120)
-1.7%
On even strength, Nazar has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Nazar shoots right. Carlsson is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (639).
Home / Away
Nazar
Carlsson
Home
44.2% (536)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
46.4% (571)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Nazar
Carlsson
P1
47.3%
43.3%
P2
42.0%
36.5%
P3
46.0%
43.2%
OT
66.7%
40.7%
Final 5 min
44.7%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 17:36 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 08:52 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |