Frederick Gaudreau vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Gaudreau wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-15.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaudreau 68.8%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 95.3%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 87.2%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Gaudreau
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Gaudreau
Hertl
Last 10: Gaudreau 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
9
Gaudreau
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
3
0
Gaudreau
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (389)
58.1% (823)
-13.1%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
56.2% (265)
-24.4%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (125)
62.9% (35)
-25.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (427).
Gaudreau shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Hertl
Home
42.6% (277)
59.7% (561)
Away
42.9% (259)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Gaudreau
Hertl
P1
43.8%
51.6%
P2
44.8%
63.8%
P3
39.2%
58.6%
Final 5 min
46.7%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:30 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 15:13 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 07:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |