Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Vilardi wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 46.9% vs Hertl 57.2% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vilardi 60.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 62.6%
Neutral zone
Vilardi 51.6%
Result
Gabriel Vilardi favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Vilardi
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Vilardi
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Vilardi
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (69)
58.1% (823)
-16.1%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
56.2% (265)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
62.9% (35)
-62.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +62.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Vilardi is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (67).
Vilardi shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Vilardi
Hertl
Home
40.8% (49)
59.7% (561)
Away
46.7% (45)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Vilardi
Hertl
P1
50.0%
51.6%
P2
37.1%
63.8%
P3
43.5%
58.6%
Final 5 min
54.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
43.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 11:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |