Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 49.6% vs Hertl 55.4% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Vilardi 70.9%
Defensive zone
Vilardi 62.3%
Neutral zone
Vilardi 64.4%
Result
Gabriel Vilardi favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Vilardi
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Vilardi
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Vilardi
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Vilardi
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (113)
54.1% (717)
-9.9%
Power Play
64.1% (39)
61.9% (210)
+2.2%
On even strength, Hertl has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Vilardi is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (124).
Vilardi shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Vilardi
Hertl
Home
38.5% (39)
58.1% (492)
Away
53.1% (113)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Vilardi
Hertl
P1
52.6%
57.1%
P2
35.3%
54.0%
P3
61.4%
56.6%
Final 5 min
53.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
49.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |