Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Barbashev wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.3% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 79.0%
Defensive zone
Barbashev 78.7%
Neutral zone
Barbashev 79.6%
Result
Ivan Barbashev favored at 79.1%
79.1%
20.9%
Barbashev
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Barbashev
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Barbashev
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Barbashev
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Barbashev
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (272)
52.5% (570)
-14.6%
Power Play
58.6% (29)
54.5% (145)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (27)
44.4% (36)
-3.7%
On even strength, Pavelski has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Barbashev is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Barbashev shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Pavelski
Home
45.3% (137)
55.0% (391)
Away
36.1% (191)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Barbashev
Pavelski
P1
41.8%
50.8%
P2
43.1%
55.0%
P3
31.9%
52.0%
OT
75.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
37.1%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
39.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 13:58 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |