Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Barbashev wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.2% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Barbashev 74.6%
Defensive zone
Barbashev 71.6%
Neutral zone
Barbashev 72.3%
Result
Ivan Barbashev favored at 72.6%
72.6%
27.4%
Barbashev
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
10
(17 meetings)
7
10
Barbashev
Pavelski
Last 10: Barbashev 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barbashev
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Barbashev
Pavelski
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
5
Barbashev
Pavelski
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (1,738)
53.6% (8,791)
-11.6%
Power Play
46.1% (89)
58.2% (2,122)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (139)
50.9% (1,138)
-14.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Barbashev is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (793).
Barbashev shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Pavelski
Home
42.4% (932)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
41.3% (1,034)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Barbashev
Pavelski
P1
40.7%
53.5%
P2
42.3%
55.2%
P3
42.3%
53.9%
OT
60.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
39.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
41.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2022 | 2 | 09:17 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 13:58 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 3 | 02:03 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 17:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Feb 21, 2020 | 1 | 05:22 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 10:14 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 3 | 04:27 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 1 | 04:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 05:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |