Ivan Barbashev vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +29.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 40.7% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-29.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 59.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.6%
Neutral zone
Barbashev 53.2%
Result
Ivan Barbashev favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Barbashev
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Barbashev
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Barbashev
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
18.6% (43)
50.0% (992)
-31.4%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
64.9% (148)
-22.0%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Barbashev is 20.0% vs right-shot opponents (15).
Barbashev shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Barbashev
MacKinnon
Home
20.8% (24)
53.3% (591)
Away
23.1% (26)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Barbashev
MacKinnon
P1
33.3%
49.9%
P2
6.7%
53.2%
P3
21.4%
50.8%
Final 5 min
0.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
22.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |