Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Barbashev wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.2% vs Steel 50.2% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Barbashev 80.3%
Defensive zone
Barbashev 81.2%
Neutral zone
Barbashev 88.2%
Result
Ivan Barbashev favored at 83.8%
83.8%
16.2%
Barbashev
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
11
(13 meetings)
2
11
Barbashev
Steel
Last 10: Barbashev 1-9 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barbashev
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
5
Barbashev
Steel
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
5
Barbashev
Steel
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (1,738)
50.6% (2,876)
-8.6%
Power Play
46.1% (89)
62.6% (179)
-16.5%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (139)
37.4% (254)
-0.7%
On power play, Steel has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Barbashev is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,173).
Barbashev shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Steel
Home
42.4% (932)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
41.3% (1,034)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Barbashev
Steel
P1
40.7%
51.9%
P2
42.3%
49.5%
P3
42.3%
49.6%
OT
60.0%
41.9%
Final 5 min
39.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
41.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2021 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 2 | 06:52 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 1 | 10:55 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 1 | 07:01 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 1 | 00:42 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 05:29 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Mar 11, 2020 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 18:39 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 02:51 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 05:28 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2 | 07:32 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |